1. Big Picture: From “Frozen” to Functioning Again 

Let’s start with the views from the top of the industry. National experts like Lawrence Yun (NAR Chief Economists), Fannie Mae, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are generally aligned: 2026 looks more like a rebound than a crash. 

• Home sales: NAR and other forecasters see U.S. home sales rising in 2026 – in some projections by low-double digits versus 2025, assuming mortgage rates drift toward the low-6% range.

• Home prices: After several years of sharp gains, most forecasts call for modest price growth instead of big swings – roughly 2–4% nationally in 2026. NAR 

• Market tone: Brian Buffini describes the market as “rebalancing back toward 2019-style numbers, not crashing,” emphasizing that fundamentals like jobs, demographics, and household formation still support housing demand. 

For Florida, Florida Realtors’ data show a similar theme: sales are slightly below last year, but inventory is up and prices are easing off peak levels rather than collapsing.

2. Interest Rates: Higher for Longer, But Not Spiking 

We spent most of 2025 talking about interest rates and rates remain the key to the 2026 story. 

• Recent levels: As of late 2025, 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. are hovering a little above 6%.

• Fannie Mae: Projects rates to end 2026 around 5.9% – slightly lower than today, but nowhere near the 3% pandemic era. Fannie Mae 

• MBA: Is more conservative, expecting rates to stay roughly in the 6–6.5% range for the next several years, including 2026. National Mortgage Professional

• NAR/Yun: Sees rates stabilizing near 6–6.1%, which is enough to unlock more buyer demand but still a “new normal,” not cheap money. 

What that means: 
 

2026 is likely a “high-5s to low-6s” rate environment. Payments will stay meaningfully higher than pre-2020, so buyers will remain payment-sensitive, but we should see more people able to move as rates drift down from their recent peaks and as more sellers accept that 3% mortgages aren’t coming back. 

3. Florida’s Affordability Puzzle 

Demographers project that Florida’s population will continue to increase, though at a slower pace than before, as many people are still drawn to the state’s benefits. 

It remains a top destination for relocating American but affordability is the pressure point. 

• Prices & inventory: Statewide months’ supply has risen to around 6.6 months, slightly favoring buyers and signaling a more balanced market. Prices are generally flat to slightly lower in many areas and Florida is among the few states showing recent price declines on some indices. NAR 

• Insurance & taxes: Florida Realtors’ chief economist notes that mortgage rates and insurance costs remain stubbornly high, keeping affordability “front and center.” Property taxes have surged, and a recent amendment tying the homestead exemption to inflation will provide only modest relief for most homeowners. 

• Rents & cost burden: A 2025 study estimates over 900,000 lower-income renter households are severely cost-burdened, paying more than 40% of income on rent – a clear sign that overall housing costs remain heavy for many Floridians. 

• Local stress points: Some Florida metros (e.g., Orlando and Tampa) are already seeing an uptick in price cuts and canceled contracts, and Miami has been flagged by UBS as one of the world’s most stretched markets due to high prices, insurance, and condo costs. 

Affordability in Florida is now a four-part equation: 
 

Rate + Price + Insurance + Taxes/HOA – and all four matter to a buyer’s monthly payment. 

4. What This Likely Means for Florida Buyers & Sellers in 2026 

Looking at the data over previous months it’s clear that the market is normalizing, not collapsing. Don’t believe everything you read on social media. We work on data – not click bait – and 2026 will reward consumers who rely on data.  

A Cooling market: Four Corners is showing a modest decline in median prices and increasing days on market, meaning supply/demand balance has shifted somewhat toward buyers, but remember the market is correcting not crashing. 

If you’re buying: 

• Buyer opportunity: For a first‐time buyer or a relocating retiree, Four Corners offers more “wiggle room” than in hyper‐heated markets,  more negotiation potential, more inventory, possibly less competition, especially in communities with lots of new construction or investor-owned homes. 

• Don’t count on rates dropping to 3–4%; plan for 5.75–6.5%, and focus on the total monthly payment (including insurance and taxes), not just the rate. 

If you’re selling: 

• Sellers need to adjust expectations compared to peak years. Pricing will need to be data-driven and realistic. With buyers very payment-sensitive, well-priced homes will still sell, but aspirational, “2022 peak” pricing may lead to homes sitting longer and potentially price reductions.  

• Expect more emphasis on condition, energy efficiency, and insurance-friendliness (roof age, hot water tank age, wind mitigation, flood risk) as buyers scrutinize long-term costs. 

If you’re investing: 

• Florida should remain attractive for long-term investors thanks to population growth and rental demand, but cash flow will be tighter unless you buy wisely and underwrite insurance, taxes, and HOA/condo fees carefully. 

How will this shape up on the ground. 

Since rates remain elevated (5.75–6.5%+) compared to the low‐rate era, buyers in Orlando/Four Corners are more sensitive to monthly payment rather than just purchase price. 

Because Orlando metro and Four Corners are more “balanced” than overheated markets, behaviour will increasingly shift toward value buys rather than speculative buys, meaning buyers who are prepared, have down payment, and are educated will win. 

For Baby Boomers/relocators: cash‐flow, tax impact, long term holding/habitability become more important than expecting fast appreciation.

In Summary 

Some states are already in a Buyer’s market..some states are in a Seller’s market and everything in between. In Central Florida, the COVID years are over. inventory has increased somewhat with Orlando’s supply moving closer to a balanced market (6 months) rather than a hot seller’s market and the data suggests we are back at 2019 levels. 

Overall, most trusted forecasts see 2026 as a year of gradual rebound, more sales, modest price growth, rates still higher than the past decade but slightly easier than 2023–24. 

Remember, every market is different and real estate happens on a local level. It’s essential that you take guidance and advice from Realtors who live, work and play in your local market .. and we are ready and waiting to help.